What's Going On?

After a quiet start to the year the phone is ringing again. And the email inbox loads new messages throughout the day. Admittedly, a lot of these messages turn out to be variations on the same two questions: What’s going on? and What should I do? But at least there is a sense of engines turning over, of people getting ready to move.

The questions make sense because the market is so very odd. It’s damn near unfathomable most days. And anyone who tells you they know exactly what to expect from this season is just making it up. I’d steer clear, I really would.

At the moment it’s a bit of a stand-off out there.

Buyers are holding back because they think the prices we’re seeing might come down still further. They sense blood in the water. Significantly higher interest rates have reduced buying power, and forced plenty of people out of the market altogether.

Sellers, for their part, are reluctant to accept less than they would have seen for their properties this time last year. And so they wait too.

We’re left with a situation in which no one wants to move, literally. So where does that leave us? Well as I said, I don’t know. But here are just a couple of things to consider:

— The houses that are listed right now are generally well-priced (because overpricing a house is plain stupid and won’t work), and it’s possible to negotiate for them rather than compete for them.  That’s good news for buyers.

— Also, offers can be loaded up with proper due diligence - financing and inspection conditions for starters - and it’s been way too long since that’s been true.

— And if you need to sell, well, you’ll sell lower than you would have a year ago, yep, there’s no denying it. But you'll buy for less too, and most analyses I have seen suggest that carrying costs are nearly unchanged. Moving without getting hurt is actually possible.

None of this is to deny that there’s real pain out there. If you bought with a variable rate mortgage, then you might not be digging into the principal at all right now. And if you bought last year and are selling in 2023, the balance sheet when you’re done might well frighten you. And if you’re renewing a mortgage this year, hold on tight.

As I said, it’s all very weird. Anxiety is sky-high. On top of all that, we need more affordable housing, lots more. And as always it’s those at or near the bottom of the property ladder who will suffer most. I’m not blind.

This is a summing up of what I’m seeing and thinking, nothing much more than that. And I’ve said a good bit more than I intended to.

If you’re considering a move, we can talk about all this, if you like. There are angles and situations I haven’t touched on at all. We can try together to make sense of things as they relate specifically to your situation. We’ll probably shake our heads at some point, and swap some general despair at the state of the world. But who knows, we might also map a way through this mess together.